Meta's $10 Billion Anthropic Compute Deal Could Reshape How Wall Street Values AI Capex

Meta is in talks with Anthropic on a compute-leasing agreement that could be worth up to $10 billion over two years, according to multiple reports this week, a deal that would mark one of the first times Meta has generated direct revenue from the massive AI data center infrastructure it has been building.

The company plans to spend between $125 billion and $145 billion in capital expenditures during 2026, nearly double the $72 billion invested last year. Until now, investors accepted those costs only because advertising profits remained strong. The Anthropic discussions change the math.

Earlier this month, Bloomberg reported that Meta is developing Meta Compute, a cloud computing platform that would rent AI infrastructure to external customers. The Anthropic negotiations reinforce that strategy. Instead of viewing AI infrastructure as a cost, investors are beginning to price it as a potential revenue stream.

Meta stock has recovered sharply in July after falling roughly 15 percent during the first half of the year. Shares are now down 8 percent year to date. The stock trades at roughly 21 times forward earnings, below its five-year average of about 26 times. Analysts remain bullish: of 54 covering the stock, the consensus rating is Strong Buy with an average price target of $824, implying about 36 percent upside from current levels.

The core business continues to perform. Meta reported first-quarter earnings per share of $10.57 on revenue of $56.3 billion, up 33 percent year over year. Wall Street expects second-quarter revenue of approximately $60.2 billion and EPS of $7.13 when Meta reports on July 29. Bank of America is more optimistic, projecting $60.6 billion and $7.50 respectively.

Goldman Sachs recently called Meta one of the strongest beneficiaries of AI spending, placing a Buy rating with an $830 price target. Morgan Stanley holds an Overweight rating with a $775 target, arguing that AI investment return concerns are already priced in. Bank of America has a Buy with an $835 target.

The Anthropic agreement is still in negotiation and may not close. The deal structure is a compute lease, not an equity investment, which means revenue recognition would be gradual over the two-year term rather than a single quarter bump.

If Meta successfully transforms its infrastructure into a cloud business, the valuation framework changes. The company gets priced as an AI infrastructure operator, not just a social media advertising company. That re-rating would take years, but the narrative shift starts now.

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