OpenAI's revenue run rate passed $40 billion, and the IPO clock just moved
OpenAI's revenue run rate passed $40 billion this month, about double the end-of-2025 figure. Coding tools and enterprise services drove the growth. Anthropic started early investor meetings ahead of a listing.
The decision it puts on your desk
If you buy model capacity at enterprise scale, renegotiate your contract before September 1. OpenAI cut prices while its run rate passed $40 billion, and Anthropic is taking meetings. If you hold private shares in either company, set your exit price before the first listing. The first public price decides the mark, and it prints before year-end.
OpenAI's revenue run rate passed $40 billion this month, roughly double where it sat at the end of 2025.
People familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that coding tools and enterprise services carried most of the growth. Monthly revenue rose more than 20% in July. Software subscriptions and a new advertising operation added to the total.
Greg Brockman, OpenAI's co-founder and president, cited the July number in an internal announcement introducing a new chief revenue officer.
That is the number the roadshow will lead with.
The price war underneath the growth
OpenAI cut prices on several of its models this quarter. It is trying to hold its enterprise share against Anthropic and against cheaper international rivals. A company this close to an IPO does not cut prices unless the alternative is worse.
I think that tells you how the next twelve months play out. Run rate climbs while margin shrinks, and both numbers go into the IPO filing the same year.
The money story
The revenue is real.
Profit is the harder number. Audited 2025 results showed a $20.9 billion operating loss against $13.1 billion in revenue. $17.2 billion went to Microsoft for compute. In March, OpenAI reported $2 billion in monthly revenue and more than 900 million weekly active users. Its $852 billion valuation works out to about 65 times 2025 revenue. Most analysts put breakeven in 2029 or 2030.
OpenAI also cannot borrow on standard terms. It has no investment-grade credit rating. NVIDIA (the chip maker) is reportedly negotiating a roughly $250 billion financing guarantee to backstop the Ohio campus. That is the balance sheet eight months before a possible listing.
The $7 billion employee buyback that closed in August was self-funded. No outside buyers took part. A flat valuation print at $852 billion. That run went from $157 billion in late 2024 to $500 billion in October, then to $852 billion in March.
Self-funding keeps the cap table clean. It also keeps the roadshow from having to defend a fresh price. The $122 billion round that closed in March supplied the cash.
I keep coming back to the cash question.
A company that can hand employees $7 billion but cannot get a conventional loan is running on investor capital. That works until the public market says it does not.
Anthropic is running the faster clock
Both labs filed confidential paperwork for an initial public offering (IPO). Anthropic is expected to reach the market first.
Its chief financial officer (CFO), Krishna Rao, is running early meetings with investors. The business news channel (CNBC) reported, citing sources, that the sessions stay high level and do not touch financials or valuation. "The meetings have focused on its Claude AI models, the development of Claude Code, its management and more," the people said.
Strategy sits in what stays unsaid. Sessions avoid valuation targets and financial forecasts. They cover product, management, and the enterprise story.
Anthropic's run rate crossed $47 billion in May, above OpenAI's figure. Its private valuation reached $965 billion in late May. Some investors expect a $2 trillion debut, a figure the Financial Times first reported.
First mover sets the comp.
Whoever lists first establishes the price multiple that every AI company after it gets measured against. Anthropic is reportedly targeting an October listing on the Nasdaq. If it lands there, OpenAI goes second, and going second means defending against a number someone else set.
The listing window
SpaceX listed in June after buying xAI. Its stock traded down roughly 38% from the intraday high. That memory is fresh on both cap tables.
Sam Altman acknowledged the stretch in July. "We did not have our best last 12 months ever, which is mostly my fault, but we are about to have our best 12 months to date," he said in a post on X.
The Wall Street Journal reported in April that OpenAI missed internal revenue and user targets in early 2026. The July quote is the answer to that report, and the $40 billion run rate is the evidence.
The timing pressure shows in the adviser math. In late June, The New York Times reported that OpenAI's advisers gave Altman a choice. List below $1 trillion in late 2026, or hold for the trillion-dollar target and wait until 2027. Altman reportedly called any cut below $1 trillion a "nonstarter," and the report wiped roughly $38 billion from SoftBank's market value in a single day.
Prediction market traders put the odds of a formal announcement before March 1, 2027 at about 59%. Odds of a 2026 announcement sit around one in three.
That spread explains this market. Revenue says the companies are ready. The market has to put a price on them, and whoever lists first sets the number everyone else defends.
What happens after the first print
For everyone downstream of these two companies, the first public price resets the board. That includes Moonshot's Hong Kong listing, every AI startup raise, and every enterprise contract with a model vendor. All of it gets repriced against the first comp.
I get the sense the window closes faster than either roadshow admits. I would not anchor a raise or a procurement decision to the current private marks. They are negotiated numbers. The public price lands before the year ends.