The AI Sift is part of you-do-nothing

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Research2w ago

Frontier models produced counterexamples to a 1967 conjecture, at $116.28 total. Math research just got an infrastructure price

Frontier models produced counterexamples to a conjecture that had stood since 1967, in a fifty-problem batch run that cost $116.28, per the weekly coverage.

The decision it puts on your desk

Run one conjecture-search batch on your own open research blocks by November 1. Pick 20 open problems on your roadmap, price the batch at the model rates that carried the counterexample story, and budget verification time separately: found solutions are the buy, not the deliverable.

AI did something mathematicians had treated as a decades-long hunt, and the experiment's cost is the part worth budgeting.

Per the weekly coverage, frontier models including GPT-6 Astra Pro, Gemini 4, Claude Opus 5.5, and Claude Sonnet 5.5 produced counterexamples to a conjecture that had stood since 1967.

The result landed inside a 50-problem batch run, and the run cost $116.28 total.

That averages under $3 per problem, per the same coverage.

Careful in one place, since sourcing on this story runs thin: the conjecture identification sits in recap coverage rather than a paper page, so replication is the thing to track. The number is the part that carries.

The cost curve for a speculative search
The cost curve for a speculative search

What a $3 budget line changes

Follow the money into the research structure it prices.

Counterexample search is a class of work mathematics treats as expensive: a proof assistant plus domain effort, usually over weeks. A $116 batch run prices a search that humans schedule over a semester.

Under the hood, the format is the mechanism. A model arms the search against problem with a second model, and the batch cost splits across the model set.

Since models work through every one of them for under $3, failure is cheap, and the error cost of running again is contained.

Precedent in research price: model-assisted work ran longer at per-task costs, and this month already carried compute-for-science stories, with Astra publishing math work on prime gaps over a launch.

The unresolved edge is verification itself. Counterexamples to a conjecture need proofs, and machine finding is no substitute for a human-checkable derivation.

I get the sense the research market prices this one through what the Astra math launch showed. Speculative search has a real bill.

The speculative research budget model, at scale
The speculative research budget model, at scale

If you run a lab or a sourcing team, the useful read is that the under-$3-per-problem number now prices a whole research class that was reservation-bound.